Today’s Market View – Alba Mineral Resources, Bluejay Mining, Caledonia Mining and more…

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SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 26 05 21

Gold prices cross $1,900/oz as central bankers continue with stimulus

 

We are raising funds for a private Graphene producer – EIS scheme approval applied for

The company is selling a number of graphene products to industrial and retail customers.

Sales of certain products have sold out unexpectedly quickly.

The company wishes to fund a ramp up in production to get ahead of demand and to develop markets for a number of new, graphene products

The business is also able to upgrade graphite to a higher grade/ specifications using its process – rolling out this process also requires funding

The company has also applied for EIS scheme approval from HMRC

Please let me know if you wish to invest in the company

*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.

 

Alba Mineral Resources (LON:ALBA) – Preliminary bulk-samping results from Clogau

Bluejay Mining* (LON:JAY) – VAT reclaim up update

Caledonia Mining* (LON:CMCL) – Updated estimates show mineral resource and reserve replenishment at the Blanket mine

Metal Tiger (LON:MTR) – ASX confirm listing of Metal Tiger

Ormonde Mining* (LON:ORM) – 2020 results and operational update

Rambler Metals and Mining* (LON:RMM) – Ming mine mineral resources update

Tertiary Minerals* (LON:TYM) – Interim report and project update

 

Gold $1,906/oz – Prices climb to four month high as Fed maintains dovish stance over rates

Gold prices rose above $1,900/oz on Wednesday for the first time since January, amid growing inflation concerns after Federal Reserve officials maintained a dovish stance over rates.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in an interview that signs of inflation would “prove to be largely transitory”, sending yields on 10-year notes to their lowest in two weeks.

Rising yields have hampered non-yielding bullion so far this year- outcompeting the metal somewhat as a safe haven asset.

The dollar index remains at a 4 ½ month low, making gold cheaper for other currency holders.  

A weaker dollar and lower bond rates along with inflation concerns have improved sentiment in the precious metals space, with prices sliding gradually this year until March when they bottomed out below $1,700/oz.

Bullion has now erased all losses for 2021, rising 7.6% so far this month and on course for its biggest monthly gain since July.

 

Dow Jones Industrials -0.24% at 34,312

Nikkei 225 +0.31% at 28,642

HK Hang Seng +0.89% at 29,169

Shanghai Composite +0.34% at 3,593

 

Economics

US – Equity futures are trading stronger this morning as a number of central bankers play down inflation concerns.

Stimulus support is likely to remain a key theme of the Biden Administration.

Fed Vice Chari Richard Clarida said signs of inflation would “prove to be largely transitory” on Tuesday.

Separately, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau talked down stimulus adjustments anytime soon, while ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said he sees no signs of sustained inflation that would warrant a slowdown in bond purchases, Bloomberg writes.

Consumer confidence pulled back in May but only slightly with the headline reading continuing to hover around pandemic-era highs.

“Consumers’ short term optimism retreated, prompted by expectations of decelerating growth and softening labour market conditions in the months ahead,” the Conference Board releasing the data commented on the numbers.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence: 117.2 v 117.5 (revised from 121.7) in April and 118.8 est.

S&P Case Shiller home price index rise to 13.3% yoy in March vs 12.0% in February

House prices  rose 1.4% in March vs 1.1% in February and

House prices  rose 13.9% yoy in March vs 12.4% yoy in February

New home sales fell 5.9% in April to 1.02m units vs 20.7% in March

Richmond Fed manufacturing index 18 in May vs 17 in April

 

More than 129m Americans aged 18 and over representing around half of US adult population have been fully vaccinated with the vaccination programme six months in.

More than 60% of US adults received at least one dose.

The pace of the vaccine rollout slowed down though with an average daily rate down at 1.65m in the week ended May 20, down from a peak of 3.31m on April 11.

 

Labour shortages are emerging across developed economies as countries continue with vaccination programme and lift Cvodi-19 restrictions, FT reports.

In the US the evidence points to stronger labour market with job vacancies surging and employees working longer hours.

In Europe unemployment has begun to drop with bars and restaurants struggling to fill vacancies.

On the other hand, there is still 10m less jobs compared to pre-pandemic times and 5m workers remaining furloughed in France and Germany alone at the end of the first quarter.

 

Japan – The Asahi newspaper, the second-largest in the country, has been the first large media organisation to call for cancellation of the Olympics.

So far the government and the International Olympic Committee insisted games will go ahead on 23 July.

Separately, ruling party executive calls for $239 bln extra budget (Reuters)

 

Germany – Q1 fell 1.8% qoq vs 0.5% in Q4 as Covid-19 cases rose across Europe in yet another wave of the pandemic

Household spending fell 5.4%

Household savings rose 23.2%

Ifo business climate index picked up to 99.2 in May vs 96.6 in April

 

UK Finance sector has a bigger carbon footprint than Canada according to Greenpeace and the WWF

Given that Canada has a massive mining industry the we are impressed that its carbon footprint is so low.

Mining contributed 5% to Canada nominal GDP in 2019 at $109bn (mining.ca).

 

South Korea – Consumer confidence rose to 105.2 vs 102.2 in April

 

Turkish business confidence fell to 110.3 in May vs 111.0 in April

 

Australia – State of Victoria sees biggest rise in Covid-19 cases in seven months with six new recorded cases and 300 people linked

Authorities are considering imposing lockdown rules

Australia has been slow to vaccinate with fewer than 10% of the population innoculated

 

Wind Farms – Biden Administration unveils plans to allow floating wind farms off the coast of California

 

India – Category 3 cyclone causes authorities to evacuate more than 1m people

 

Currencies

US$1.2240/eur vs 1.2259/eur yesterday.  Yen 108.85/$ vs 108.62/$.  SAr 13.852/$ vs 13.857/$.  $1.414/gbp vs $1.421/gbp.  0.778/aud vs 0.777/aud.  CNY 6.394/$ vs 6.403/$.

 

Commodity News

BHP Chile control staff to strike today after rejecting final wage offer

Workers at BHP’s remote operations center in Chile have rejected the company’s wage offer and will begin striking today, according to a union leader.

About 200 BHP Chile employees provide control services to the Escondida and Spence copper mines from a center in Santiago.

Earlier this week, BHP reached a wage deal with supervisors at Cerro Colorado, the smallest of its three copper mines in Chile.

Precious metals:  

Gold US$1,906/oz vs US$1,885/oz yesterday

Gold ETFs 101.0moz vs US$100.9moz yesterday

Platinum US$1,205/oz vs US$1,183/oz yesterday

Palladium US$2,791/oz vs US$2,763/oz yesterday

Silver US$28.13/oz vs US$27.72/oz yesterday

           

Base metals:  

Copper US$ 9,990/t vs US$9,950/t yesterday

Aluminium US$ 2,388/t vs US$2,371/t yesterday

Nickel US$ 17,210/t vs US$17,050/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 2,998/t vs US$2,938/t yesterday

Lead US$ 2,176/t vs US$2,120/t yesterday

Tin US$ 29,750/t vs US$29,500/t yesterday

           

Energy:           

Oil US$69.0/bbl vs US$68.4/bbl yesterday

Natural Gas US$2.953/mmbtu vs US$2.885/mmbtu yesterday

 

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$183.0/t vs US$182.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$789.6/t vs US$799.3/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$82.3/t vs US$80.8/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$150.0/t vs US$151.0/t

           

Other: 

Cobalt LME 3m US$43,650/t vs US$43,650/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$75,630/t vs US$75,506/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,670/t vs US$12,649/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$640/t vs US$640/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,793/t vs US$1,759/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$270/t vs US$270/t

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$510/t vs US$505/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% $8.1/lb vs $8.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% $36.75/kg vs $36.75/kg

 

Battery News

US to import metals for EVs in blow to domestic miners

The US will rely on allied countries such as Canada, Australia and Brazil to supply the bulk of the metals needed for EV production.

Rather than focus permitting more US mines, Biden’s administration is intent on creating jobs that process minerals domestically into EV battery parts, in theory, reducing pandemic-fueled unemployment.

The plans would be a blow to US miners who hoped Biden would rely primarily on domestically sourced metals, as his presidential campaign signalled, to achieve a less carbon intensive economy.

Domestic mining has not been ignored entirely with the DoE awarding grants to help old coal mines produce REMs.

 

California agrees to open waters to wind farms

California and the US government have announced an agreement that will open areas of the state’s coast to what would be the first commercial wind farms on the Pacific Coast.

The proposed wind farms could eventually produce a combined 4.6GW and power 1.6m homes.

The plans would see 380 turbines across approx. 1000 square-kilometres with the proposed site expected to be finalised next month.

 

Hydrogen – Green hydrogen is approaching cost competitiveness for heavy trucking, buses and remote power (Bloomberg)

Green Hydrogen could be commercially viable by 2030 according to Clean Energy Finance Corp backed by the Australian Governmen.

Green Hydrogen is produced using electrolysis driven by renewable energy, its only by-product is O2.

Blue hydrogen captures and stores most of the CO2 output.

Gray hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels and produced CO2 as a by-product

 

Company News

Alba Mineral Resources (LON:ALBA) 0.27p, Mkt cap £16.2m – Preliminary bulk-samping results from Clogau

Alba Minerals has reported initial results from its concentrates bulk-sampling at the Clogau St David mine in North Wales.

The company says that “Concentrates produced from Jack Williams Lode and floor material from Tyn-Y-Cornel area returned notable grades of 20.4 to 165.5 g/t”.

Alba Minerals also says that “Concentrates produced from two other bulk sample locations returned lower-grade results – grade variability expected due to bulk sample locations (in previously worked-out areas) and inherent nature of Clogau vein system”.

The company says that it plans to take further bulk samples later this year including from ”unworked veins, with prospects for higher-grade mineralization”.

The individual samples relate to samples of around 150gms each and although the headline results appear encouraging it is unclear as to how the results will translate into a future mineral resources estimate for the project.

The company also confirms that its surface and underground drilling is progressing with “JW003, the third hole in the current phase of surface drilling, … [at] … a depth of 115 metres.  The first hole in the current phase of underground drilling, UG001, has been drilled to 50.5 metres

 

Bluejay Mining* (LON:JAY) 9.0p, Mkt cap £85m – VAT reclaim up update

BUY – Valuation 37.7p

Bluejay Mining report on the successful appeal by Tower Resources against HMRC in the Upper Tax Tribunal on 21 May.

HMRC’s appeal against the lower tribunal findings were dismissed.

Bluejay’s case is similar to that at Tower Resources and the company maintains its consistently help position that at all times Bluejay was conducting legitimate overseas activity with respect to VAT reclamation.

We note Bluejay is managing the Dundas mining development project and other exploration in Greenland alongside a number of exploration projects in Finland.

*SP Angel act Nomad and broker to Bluejay. The analyst has previously visited the Enonkoski mine site in Finland. The analyst recently bought shares in Bluejay Mining.

 

Caledonia Mining* (LON:CMCL) 1075p, Mkt Cap £130m – Updated estimates show mineral resource and reserve replenishment at the Blanket mine

Caledonia Mining has provided updated mineral resources and reserves estimates reflecting the Blanket Mine’s mineral inventory at 1st January 2020.

The company explains that it commissioned the independent experts, Minxcon, “to produce an updated Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve estimation based upon existing data, but reflecting the completion of Central Shaft, historic mining and taking the opportunity to further digitise data and embrace the latest analytical tools. The report was commissioned based upon data struck at 1 January 2020, albeit its completion was delayed by the impacts of the Covid pandemic”.

Applying a cut-off grade of 1.5g/t gold, Measured and Indicated resources are 8.53mt at an average grade of 3.29g/t gold with an additional inferred resource of 8.49mt at an average grade of 3.17g/t.  Approximately a third of the Measured and Indicated resources are within the Measured category.

Proven and Probable reserves amount to 4.86mt at an average grade of 3.38g/t gold with approximately 35% in the Measured classification.

The company points out that the inferred resources have declined by around “10 per cent from 963,000 ounces, as at July 2018, to 866,000 ounces as at January 1, 2020 … due to approximately 18 per cent of Inferred Mineral Resources being converted to the M&I category and the lack of deep drilling exploration over the last 12 months awaiting the development of new drilling platforms on the lower levels via the recently commissioned Central Shaft”.

Caledonia Mining also says that “Blanket’s Mineral Resources have grown by approximately 86 per cent since 2011 despite mining over 400,000 ounces over this period”.

CEO, Steve Curtis, explained that “Today’s announcement marks an additional milestone in the long track record of growing Mineral Resources and successfully converting Inferred Mineral Resources into M&I to keep extending the life of mine at Blanket since its inception in 1906”.

Mr Curtis went on to explain that “Now that the Central Shaft is completed, we will have the ability to do more deep level exploration and we expect to replace the depleted Mineral Resources as we continue to go deeper, extending the life of mine while achieving the 80,000 ounce target from 2022 onwards”.

Conclusion: Successful reserve and resource replenishment at the Blanket Mine underpins the production expansion to 80,000oz pa from 2022. The completion of the new Central Shaft allows access to deeper mineralisation and also provides drilling platforms to continue the exploration of the depth extensions of the ore zones.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

 

Metal Tiger (LON:MTR) 31p, Mkt Cap £48m – ASX confirm listing of Metal Tiger

Metal Tiger report that further to its announcement of 29 January 2021, the Australian Securities Exchange (“ASX”) has confirmed that Metal Tiger will be admitted to the Official List of the ASX and 9,111,810 Metal Tiger CHESS Depositary Interests (“CDIs”) will be officially quoted under the ticker ASX:MTR, from 27 May 2021.

The listing on ASX is a compliance listing with no capital being raised. A capital raising conducted within the next 12 months will require a prospectus in accordance with Australian regulatory requirements.

 

Ormonde Mining* (LON:ORM) 1.05p, Mkt Cap £5m – 2020 results and operational update

Ormonde Mining reports a profit of €0.5m for the year to 31st December 2020 (2019 – loss of €11.3m) following the €6m disposal of its interest in the Barruecopardo tungsten mine in Spain in February 2020. 

The company reports a 31st December 2020 cash balance of €6m.

Executive Chairman, Jonathon Henry explains that due to “an unfortunate set of circumstances” in which vendors “demanded more onerous terms” for the proposed acquisition of a high grade copper and polymetallic project in the Republic of Congo and shareholders declined to approve the issue of shares for the acquisition, the opportunity lapsed.

Mr. Henry explains that the company is “now exploring alternative opportunities and strategies for the business in the interest of all shareholders in a landscape which has changed markedly in recent months in terms of the increased capital now available to junior mining companies, somewhat limiting Ormonde’s competitive advantage”.

The company retains its projects in Spain at La Zarza and its gold exploration projects in Salamanca and Zamora and “we continue to seek ways to maximise value for shareholders from these assets, including the sale of the La Zarza interests, material expenditure is not anticipated to be incurred on them until a decision has been made in respect of new opportunities”.

In a separate announcement this morning, Ormonde Mining reports that shareholder Thomas Anderson had increased his holding in the company from 21.96% to 23.02%.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Ormonde Mining

 

Rambler Metals and Mining* (LON:RMM) 0.4p, Mkt Cap £42m – Ming mine mineral resources update

(Rambler owns 100% of the Ming Copper-Gold Mine)

CLICK FOR PDF

Rambler has published an updated mineral resources estimate, effective 31st March 2021, for its Ming mine in Newfoundland.

The new estimate. At a 1% copper cut-off, describes a Measured & Indicated resource of 24.14mt at an average grade of 1.69% copper and 0.32g/t gold and an additional 5.02mt of Inferred resources at an average grade of 1.89% copper and 0.41g/t gold.

“All zones remain open at depth” indicating that further drilling to lower levels of the known mineralisation down dip from the current resource may expand the mineral inventory over time.

Approximately 90% of the new Measured & Indicated mineral resource (21.5mt at an average grade of 1.61% copper and 0.12g/t gold)  is within the Lower Footwall Zone (LFZ) which is “currently being developed as the cornerstone source of future mined tonnes”.

In addition to the resources estimates, the company has provided an updated estimate for the mineral reserves to allow for depletion since the last estimate in January 2018.

The Proven & Probable reserves now stand at 7.64mt at a diluted garde of 1.73% copper, 0.38g/t gold and 2.55g/t silver which, at the planned 1,350tpd mining rate we estimate at the equivalent of over 15 years production.

The company confirms that, following limited work in 2020 it has now resumed underground diamond drilling, and plans to update the global resource model, with a planned update to the mining reserve in 2022.

The principal targets of the 2021 drilling are to:

Add drilling coverage in areas of sparse coverage to assist with mine planning and design; and to

Upgrade parts of the Inferred resources to higher, measured and indicated confidence levels and to

Follow up promising exploration drill holes identified during the 2019 drilling campaign

CEO, Dr. Toby Bradbury, explained that “The in-fill drilling is being conducted in parallel with the redevelopment of the Ming Mine through 2021 and is a key element of risk mitigation for the future as we confirm our short and longer-term target areas for mining”.

We estimate that during the three years between 1st April 2018 and 31st March 2021 the Ming Mine treated just over 1mt of ore at an average grade of 1.44% copper while over the same period around 1.7mt at an average of over 2% copper were added to its Measured & Indicated resource inventory.

Conclusion: Rambler Metals & Mining is accelerating its resource definition drilling during 2021 with the intention of producing an updated mineral reserve estimate and refining the mine plan. In the interim, we estimate that the increase in mineral resources announced today is more than replacing the tonnes mined and delivering the additional resources at higher grades than those consumed.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Rambler Metals & Mining

 

Tertiary Minerals* (LON:TYM) – 0.32p, Mkt cap £3.7m – Interim report and project update

Tertiary Minerals has announced a loss of £0.22m for the six months to 31st March 2021 (2020 – loss of £0.28m).

The company’s cash balance at 31st December 2021 was £0.74m.

Tertiary Minerals provides a progress report on its main projects highlighting:

The completion of soil sampling at its Pyramid Gold/Silver prospect in Nevada where assay results from the possible western strike extension and from trenching of the North Ruth and Western Line anomaly are awaited.

Further soil sampling and geophysical modelling at the Paymaster zinc/silver project in Nevada; and

Additional land acquisition at the Brunton Pass copper project in Nevada where Tertiary Minerals has completed a drone magnetic survey and is awaiting assay results from soil sampling; and

Plans for further field exploration of the Mt Tobin silver prospect during this summer where soil and magnetic anomalies have been identified “over a strike length of 1,200m and widths of 75-200m”, and

Results are awaited from drillhole 21TLRC001 at the Lucky Copper project in Nevada which intersected “two magnetic gossan zones … containing low-grade copper (+/-gold) mineralization and where results of a magnetic survey are also awaited”.

Tertiary Minerals also highlights the recently announced formation of its new subsidiary, Luangwa Minerals “to acquire copper exploration and development projects in Zambia”.

Executive Chairman, Patrick Cheetham, explained that “Copper is increasingly a focus for the Company. It is a key metal in electric vehicles, prices are at record levels and the long-term market outlook is very favourable. After reviewing data on a number of projects around the world, the Company has formed a Zambian subsidiary, Luangwa Minerals Limited, which will target copper exploration and development opportunities in Zambia, one of the world’s top 10 copper producing countries”.

Mr. Cheetham also confirmed that “We have maintained our position in the Storuman fluorspar development project in Sweden where the Company’s mining concession application remains under government review, although, it seems, with little prospect of an imminent decision”.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

 

Recent Interviews:

BBC:  Catalytic converters  https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p09jl6c9

VOX Markets:  28/04/20: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/60896b3f017903524c8e0936/?context=/listings/LON/BMN/multimedia/

21/04/20: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/listings/LON/BMN

IGTV:  Improved global economic forecasts from the IMF provides trading opportunities:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GXKPqzuCG0

VW expansion driving battery metals prices: https://youtu.be/7vqSrONBaWw

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.

We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

 

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an  accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

 

Analysts

John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – [email protected] – 0203 470 0471

 

 

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

 

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver

BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel

Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt

LME

Oil Brent

ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore

NYMEX

Thermal Coal

Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal

SSY

RRE

Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite

Asian Metal

 

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