Will globalization survive COVID-19?

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Comments of the Day

01 December 2020

 

 

Video commentary for November 30th 2020

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: bitcoin surges to new high, altcoins play catch up, oil steady, gold eases, silver at lower side of range, Chinese shares decline, other emerging market steady, coppper continues to lead, 

 

 

Will globalization survive COVID-19?

This report from UBS may be of interest to subscribers. 

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber’s Area. 

If reflation is the new buzzword for governments, resilience is what companies are focusing on. Many were caught flat-footed by the pandemic and they will now actively transition to greater diversity of suppliers, holding more inventory and nearshoring manufacturing capacity.

 

 

London ‘Thrown to the Lions’ as Brexit Finance Deal Unlikely

This article by Viren Vaghela for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The bloc has already made a land grab for London’s euro swaps clearing business, urging its banks to accelerate a shift to Europe. Deutsche Boerse AG’s Eurex Clearing has built up a 19% share of the business over recent years although it is dwarfed by London’s market share.

In recent weeks, Goldman and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have indicated that between them more than 300 staff will move to continental cities. Goldman is shifting as much as $60 billion in assets to Frankfurt, while JPMorgan is moving about $230 billion to the German city.

Consultancy EY said in a new report Monday that only 10% of big financial services firms are planning to establish or expand operations in the U.K. in the coming year, discouraged by the uncertainties of Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s down from 45% in April.

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

The City of London is the UK’s cash cow and that is particularly true since North Sea oil went into decline. The City employed 360,000 people in banks and contributed £31 billion in taxes in the 2017. In the aftermath of Brexit, both those figures will be smaller but not catastrophically so.

 

 

Number of shares trading above their 200-day MAs

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

This indicator is one useful picture of investor activity. The 200-day MA is the rough average of what the price has been over the preceding year. If a share is trading above it, the logical conclusion is that the on average prices are rising.

 

 

Bitcoin Is Winning Covid-19 Monetary Revolution

This article by Niall Ferguson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Some economists, such as my friend Ken Rogoff, welcome the demise of cash because it will make the management of monetary policy easier and organized crime harder. But it will be a fundamentally different world when all our payments are recorded, centrally stored, and scrutinized by artificial intelligence — regardless of whether it is Amazon’s Jeff Bezos or China’s Xi Jinping who can access our data.

In its early years, Bitcoin suffered reputational damage because it was adopted by criminals and used for illicit transactions. Such nefarious activity has not gone away, as a recent Justice Department report makes clear. Increasingly, however, Bitcoin has an appeal to respectable individuals and institutions who would like at least some part of their economic lives to be sheltered from the gaze of Big Brother.

It is not (as the term “cryptocurrency” misleadingly implies) that Bitcoin is beyond the reach of the law or the taxman. When the Federal Bureau of Investigation busted the online illegal goods market Silk Road in 2013, it showed how readily government agencies can trace the counterparties in suspect Bitcoin transactions. This is precisely because the blockchain is an indelible record of all Bitcoin transactions, complete with senders’ and receivers’ bitcoin addresses.

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

Bitcoin’s jump to new highs over the weekend is another example of volatility in quiet weekend trading and suggests the downdraft last weekend was an attempt to influence weak holders so sell and to trigger stops.

 

 

Eoin’s personal portfolio – new trading position opened October 21st

 

Eoin Treacy’s view

One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.

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